I had a player prop yesterday as the Phillies took on the Cubs, and that cashed by a narrow margin. A win is a win, so I won’t be upset about it. The Phillies lost their ninth straight game, and the Cubs won their entire homestand, also nine games. Today we shift to a different NL Central team as the Reds host the Tigers in Cincinnati.
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The Tigers are American League Central hopefuls. Last season, they looked like the best team in the division from April until August. Then they imploded and ended the season as a Wild Card winner. It didn’t matter, though, as they were able to beat the Guardians in the first round of the playoffs. They were eventually eliminated by the Mariners, but it was a very competitive series. This season, the team is 14-12 for the year, but they are brutal on the road at 4-10.
Tonight, they send out Framber Valdez to the hill. Valdez came over to the Tigers in the offseason as a free agent from the Astros. So far, Valdez has rewarded them with a 2-1 record, 3.30 ERA, and a 1.20 WHIP over 30 innings. There have been questions about his maturity or maybe him as a teammate, but what you can’t question is his reliability. He is almost always turning in quality starts. He has thrown four of them in five outings this season. There aren’t a ton of guys who have faced Valdez on the Reds, but Nathan Lowe is 9-for-30, and Eugenio Suarez is 5-for-22 against him.
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To this point in the season, the Reds have to be one of the bigger surprises in the league. They aren’t quite shocking because they did make the postseason last year. So far, they are 16-9 for the year, which is tied for first place in the NL Central. Surprisingly, the Reds haven’t been very successful at home this year. They are just 6-6 for the season at home, and they have a negative run differential, so there are some concerns.
Looking to get a win for Cincinnati tonight is Andrew Abbott. He has struggled in the early season, going 0-2 for the year with a 5.84 ERA, and a 1.74 WHIP. This is rather surprising because Abbott is a solid pitcher. Looking at his stats, he has allowed 16 earned runs in 18.2 innings in April. That spans four starts, so clearly he is not getting very deep into the games. He does have a bit of an advantage here as the Tigers have just eight total at-bats against him from two hitters. They are 1-for-8. It is still very early, but this is the first season that he has had an ERA higher at home than on the road.
There is another clear player prop to go after in this game. You can count on Valdez to turn in six innings of work just about every start. There are very few hitters I’m overly concerned about in the Reds lineup. Valdez going over 17.5 outs recorded at -140 is a play I’ll put on my card for today.
Additionally, I don’t think Abbott is in great form. The Tigers don’t have a great hitting lineup either, so I won’t say that he will get rocked. I do think Detroit has the edge as a starting pitcher. Give me the Tigers to win the game at -130.
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