{"id":51905,"date":"2023-01-03T16:45:17","date_gmt":"2023-01-03T21:45:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cablemanpro.com\/wallstreetpr\/biden-republicans-and-2024-its-the-unknowns-that-will-sink-or-save-the-incumbent-51905"},"modified":"2023-01-03T16:45:17","modified_gmt":"2023-01-03T21:45:17","slug":"biden-republicans-and-2024-its-the-unknowns-that-will-sink-or-save-the-incumbent","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cablemanpro.com\/wallstreetpr\/biden-republicans-and-2024-its-the-unknowns-that-will-sink-or-save-the-incumbent-51905","title":{"rendered":"Biden, Republicans and 2024: It’s the ‘unknowns’ that will sink or save the incumbent"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

With 2022 midterms and control of the House and Senate decided (well, mostly!) campaign 2024 begins \u2013 with Republican hopefuls.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Former President Donald Trump has already launched his campaign. Well-funded Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis<\/a> was just sworn in for a second term. Former Vice President Mike Pence, and a host of other well regarded Republican politicians are “visiting” Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and other key decisive states, lining up fund-raising, and building campaign teams.<\/p>\n

On the Democratic side, all eyes are on President Biden<\/a>. He and his team have given every indication that he\u2019s not\u00a0<\/i>not-running, but whose indications nonetheless are prompting hopefuls to (quietly) determine what they might\u00a0<\/i>do in the event that the president decides not\u00a0<\/i>to run.<\/p>\n

If two weeks is a lifetime in politics, two years is an eternity. But unlike in previous elections \u2013 when essentially a two-year forecast of the political environment was fully unpredictable, this time around, we kind of know what we\u2019re going to be discussing two years from now \u2013 even though we can\u2019t know how it will affect the race.<\/p>\n

BIDEN FAMILY ‘FULLY’ SUPPORTS 2024 RE-ELECTION CAMPAIGN: SENIOR ADVISOR<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n

As the late Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld once said, “there are known unknowns and unknown unknowns.”<\/p>\n

Typically, it\u2019s the unknown unknowns that wreak havoc with forecasters. In 2002, Republican George W. Bush<\/a> had won seats in both the House and Senate, the war in Iraq had not yet started, and no one could predict that the handling of that war would make his reelection bid far from certain.\u00a0<\/p>\n

In 2010, Democrat Barack Obama<\/a> was coming off a major defeat in the midterms, and no one could predict that he would be able to win reelection partially because of some support for ObamaCare, and that Super Storm Sandy in the last weeks of the 2012 campaign would enable Obama to blunt his opponent\u2019s attacks.\u00a0<\/p>\n

In 2014, Hillary Clinton was a popular former Secretary of State, who was widely expected to be the Democrat\u2019s 2016 nominee \u2013 no one realized that she\u2019d have real trouble getting the nomination over an unknown Vermont independent Senator (Bernie Sanders) and that her opponent would be a novice candidate, Donald Trump, who would be able to make effective use of a (then-) unknown email server, together with a government investigation, to wind up winning the White House.\u00a0<\/p>\n

In 2018, people may have thought Trump was vulnerable, but no one anticipated a once-in-a-century pandemic would help the man Obama had prevented from running in 2016, to finally capture the White House after two campaigns that had, frankly, flopped.\u00a0<\/p>\n

While there are undoubtedly unknown unknowns in store for American politics, but there are a large set of known unknowns that will fuel the debate. We don\u2019t know how they\u2019re likely to turn out \u2013 but we can be pretty sure that they will be driving the debate in 2024.\u00a0<\/p>\n

MAJORITY OF DEMS RUMORED TO BE CONSIDERING PRESIDENTIAL RUN WON’T COMMIT TO BACKING BIDEN IN 2024<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n

With the exception of our direct involvement in wars, foreign policy issues rarely affect US politics. Trump won in 2016<\/a> in large part because of his commitment to wind down “forever wars,” and he ran his administration on the theme of “America First” \u2013 and pledged to reduce our commitment to foreign alliances.<\/p>\n

Ironically it was Biden who willfully executed that commitment \u2013 pulling out of Afghanistan \u2013 in a SNAFU of a withdrawal that sent his job approval into a tailspin \u2013 and probably is one of the reasons he wasn\u2019t able to get as much of his “Build Back Better” agenda passed as he had hoped.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Since then, Biden’s political focus has been primarily domestic: Passing the part of “Build Back Better.” The Democratic electorate\u2019s focus on abortion and the continued impact of Donald Trump helped him make the 2022 midterms fairly successful \u2013 and rekindled expectations that Biden is running in 2024.<\/p>\n

But it\u2019s the known unknowns overseas that will likely have a profound impact on the 2024 campaign: China, Ukraine\/Russia, and the impact of those actions on oil-producing nations such as Saudi Arabia<\/a>, Iran, and Venezuela, inflation, and the U.S. economy.<\/p>\n

They\u2019ll determine whether voters believe that Democrats have made the country better \u2013 or think that instead, it\u2019s time to return a Republican to the White House.\u00a0<\/p>\n

For better or worse, the United States is clearly very involved in the Ukraine war. Russia attacked Ukraine but the U.S. has devoted substantial resources both to helping them fight that war \u2013 and to trying to ensure the Europeans help as well.\u00a0<\/p>\n

ZELENSKYY WARNS RUSSIA PLANNING \u2018PROLONGED\u2019 ATTACK WITH IRANIAN SHAHED DRONES<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n

Right now the war looks like it\u2019s not ending anytime soon. The Ukrainians<\/a> have proven themselves more effective than anticipated \u2013 but it doesn\u2019t seem as though the conflict has an end in sight.\u00a0<\/p>\n

The world’s major oil-producing nations are either close to Russia, or currently taking a wait-and-see attitude to the war. Rather than raising oil output to fight against rising prices, the Saudis have gone along with trying to keep prices high.\u00a0<\/p>\n

The Iranians seem to have turned down Biden\u2019s earlier offer to get back into the nuclear deal, and instead are selling weapons to the Russians. And the Venezuelans have sent some signals that they might be willing to play ball with the U.S. \u2013 in the event that the war continues to go south for the Russians<\/p>\n

We don\u2019t know how the war is going to turn out \u2013 (I certainly claim no expertise) but I know that we \u2013 and the Saudis, Venezuelans, and even the Iranians will know a great deal more in the next two years.\u00a0<\/p>\n

IF the war turns out badly for the Russians, they are likely to want to figure out a way to be helpful to the U.S. \u2013 in the form of low oil prices.<\/p>\n

CLICK HERE TO GET THE OPINION NEWSLETTER<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n

We also know that an outcome favorable to the Ukrainians will help return Ukrainian grain<\/a> to the world market. Ukraine represents 8% of global grain sales and would help mitigate inflation.<\/p>\n

But we also know that it could go the other way \u2013 a long–<\/a>term stalemate between Russia and Ukraine, or worse, will likely mean continued high oil and grain prices \u2013 and either continued inflation<\/a> or a serious recession.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Similarly, we don\u2019t know the outcome of the emerging tension with China. Basically, the Biden administration<\/a> has doubled down on Trump\u2019s approach with the Chinese. The U.S. \u2013 through the CHIPs act passed with support of several Republican senators \u2013 has essentially thrown the gauntlet down with the Chinese. This will likely have a major impact on U.S. manufacturing and the prices for computers, phones, cars, and other chip-dependent products.<\/p>\n

We\u2019ll know more about whether these steps are working by early 2024 than we know today. We\u2019ll know if the approach is working to help the U.S. economy \u2013 and whether it\u2019s fueling growth or failing. Even though the steps have been taken on a bipartisan basis \u2013 the voters will know whom to blame if it\u2019s failing \u2013 and who can take credit if it works.<\/p>\n

There are a host of other simmering conflicts in various parts of the world \u2013 protests in Iran\u2026 a Middle East <\/a>that may (or may not) be embracing the “Abraham Accords”\u2026 and South East Asia \u2013 which is working hard to try to take up much of the manufacturing which the Biden administration is trying to move out of China.<\/p>\n

While each of these can be dismissed as foreign policy side shows that rarely affect American politcs \u2013 the outcome of any of them will have a dramatic impact on the U.S. economy and the 2024 voter.<\/p>\n

We don\u2019t know how they\u2019ll turn out. That is unknowable\u2026that they\u2019ll have a dramatic impact on all of us is demonstrable.\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Source – https:\/\/www.foxnews.com\/opinion\/biden-republicans-2024-its-unknowns-will-sink-save-incumbent <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

With 2022 midterms and control of the House and Senate decided (well, mostly!) campaign 2024 begins \u2013 with Republican hopefuls.\u00a0 Former President Donald Trump has […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"rop_custom_images_group":[],"rop_custom_messages_group":[],"rop_publish_now":"initial","rop_publish_now_accounts":{"twitter_2902945987_2902945987":""},"rop_publish_now_history":[],"rop_publish_now_status":"pending","footnotes":""},"categories":[16563],"tags":[],"stock_ticker":[],"class_list":["post-51905","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-news","entry"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nBiden, Republicans and 2024: It's the 'unknowns' that will sink or save the incumbent - Wall Street PR<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/cablemanpro.com\/wallstreetpr\/biden-republicans-and-2024-its-the-unknowns-that-will-sink-or-save-the-incumbent-51905\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Biden, Republicans and 2024: It's the 'unknowns' that will sink or save the incumbent - 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