{"id":132658,"date":"2026-05-20T05:00:48","date_gmt":"2026-05-20T09:00:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cablemanpro.com\/wallstreetpr\/iran-is-gambling-that-trump-will-cave-it-hasnt-gone-well-for-them-so-far-132658"},"modified":"2026-05-20T05:00:48","modified_gmt":"2026-05-20T09:00:48","slug":"iran-is-gambling-that-trump-will-cave-it-hasnt-gone-well-for-them-so-far","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cablemanpro.com\/wallstreetpr\/iran-is-gambling-that-trump-will-cave-it-hasnt-gone-well-for-them-so-far-132658","title":{"rendered":"Iran is gambling that Trump will cave. It hasn\u2019t gone well for them so far"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

As reports emerge of a possible new phase of confrontation between the United States and the Islamic Republic, one reality is becoming increasingly clear: the ruling system in Tehran still does not fully believe President Donald Trump<\/a> is prepared to go beyond pressure and fundamentally alter the balance of power.<\/p>\n

History does not remember those who merely manage crises. It remembers those who confront \u2014 and dismantle \u2014 the ideologies that produce them. The 20th century proved this decisively: Nazism, fascism and communism once appeared immovable, yet each ultimately collapsed under sustained and determined pressure.<\/p>\n

The Islamic Republic of Iran<\/a> belongs in that same category. It is not a state that evolves toward moderation. It is an ideological system that sustains itself through repression, deception and expansion.<\/p>\n

The roots of this challenge trace back to 1979\u2019s revolt, when a profound failure of judgment in Washington reshaped the Middle East<\/a>. The removal of the late Shah, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi \u2014 America\u2019s most reliable regional ally during the Cold War \u2014 created a vacuum that was filled not by democratic forces, but by a radical clerical mafia whose nature was neither fully understood nor seriously examined. Critical warnings were dismissed. The ideological foundations of Khomeinism were underestimated. Even its core texts were never meaningfully studied by those responsible for shaping policy.<\/p>\n

FROM HOSTAGE CRISIS TO ASSASSINATION PLOTS: IRAN\u2019S NEAR HALF-CENTURY WAR ON AMERICANS<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n

What followed was not transition, but collapse \u2014 chaos hardening into theocratic power, and a system built on absolutism, coercion, violence and perpetual ideological expansion.<\/p>\n

For decades, successive U.S. administrations attempted to manage this reality \u2014 through engagement, negotiation or strategic patience. The outcome was consistent: the steady expansion of a destabilizing force across the region. From Iraq<\/a> to Lebanon, from Syria to Yemen, the Islamic Republic constructed a transnational terrorist network of militias and proxies, forming what is now widely recognized as the “Shia Crescent.” The war on terror, launched in 2001 at immense cost, failed to confront its central engine of instability.<\/p>\n

Then came Donald Trump \u2014 and he broke the pattern<\/a>. He did not reinterpret the system; he confronted it. In doing so, he changed the balance of power.<\/p>\n

MIKE PENCE: TRUMP AND OUR INCREDIBLE MILITARY ARE ENDING 47 YEARS OF IRANIAN TERROR<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n

Unlike his predecessors, he refused to treat the Islamic Republic as a state actor capable of reform through diplomacy. He recognized it for what it is: the epicenter of a transnational ideological project rooted in coercion, expansion, and permanent conflict. And he acted accordingly. \u00a0<\/p>\n

The elimination of Iranian Maj. Gen. Qasem Soleimani was not simply a tactical strike. It was a strategic rupture in the modern Middle East. Soleimani was the architect of Iran\u2019s regional Islamic terrorist network \u2014 the connective force linking proxy structures from Baghdad to Beirut. Removing him disrupted not only operations, but the regime\u2019s sense of reach and impunity.<\/p>\n

For the first time in years, the system \u2014 effectively a Shia Islamic caliphate centered in Tehran \u2014 was pushed onto the defensive<\/a>.<\/p>\n

TRUMP SQUEEZES IRAN WITH MAXIMUM PRESSURE \u2014 WHY IT HASN\u2019T FORCED A BREAKTHROUGH<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n

Trump followed this with another unprecedented decision: designating the IRGC as a<\/a> terrorist organization. It exposed the regime\u2019s core institution as what it has long been in practice \u2014 a transnational instrument of ideological warfare, not a conventional military force.<\/p>\n

Clarity puts pressure on your adversary. Ambiguity lets it breathe. The impact was felt far beyond Washington.<\/p>\n

For millions of Iranians \u2014 nearly 90 million people living under repression \u2014 this was not abstract policy. It was one of the rare moments when American strategy aligned with Iranian<\/a> reality. For many, Trump came to represent the possibility of breaking the grip of a regime that has held the country hostage for decades.<\/p>\n

TRUMP\u2019S LEADERSHIP CREATES ‘RARE OPPORTUNITY’ FOR CHANGE IN IRAN, FORMER IRANIAN POLITICAL PRISONER SAYS<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n

That distinction is not semantic. It is strategic. Yet the story remains unfinished. But pressure is not resolution. At critical moments, signals of negotiation, pauses in<\/a> escalation and incomplete follow-through introduced ambiguity into an otherwise clear framework. Time was given back to a system that survives on time. And the Islamic Republic has always been adaptive.<\/p>\n

Leadership change does not alter the structure. Its ideological foundation \u2014 hostility toward the United States and Israel, reliance on proxy warfare and internal repression \u2014 remains unchanged. The eventual succession of Ali Khamenei<\/a> will unfold within an institutional framework designed for continuity. Whether authority passes to his son Mojtaba Khamenei or another insider, the machinery of control will endure.<\/p>\n

This is why partial measures fail. Remove a figure, and another emerges. Strike a facility, and it is rebuilt. Sign an agreement, and it is reinterpreted. The system absorbs impact unless something deeper breaks.<\/p>\n

IRAN REGIME UNDER ‘IMMENSE PRESSURE’ AMID INCOMING TRUMP ADMIN POLICIES, REGIONAL LOSSES, ECONOMIC WOES<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n

Inside Iran, the regime faces mounting internal pressure. Economic collapse and systemic corruption have become structural realities. Environmental stress is no less severe. Public anger is cumulative. The anti-regime uprisings did not disappear<\/a> \u2014 they were suppressed savagely. That is not stability or legitimacy. It is compression: a machinery of repression and propaganda.<\/p>\n

Externally, the pattern is equally consistent. Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Yemen \u2014 the map reflects design, not coincidence. Influence expands where institutions weaken. Control extends where states fragment. This is not opportunism. It is doctrine. This is not a normal geopolitical competitor. It is a system engineered for confrontation \u2014 and sustained by it.<\/p>\n

His cooperation with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu<\/a>, alongside engagement with key Persian Gulf actors such as Mohammed bin Salman, Saudi Arabia’s crown prince and de facto ruler, and UAE President Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, pointed toward a reconfiguration of the Middle East. That would be one that prioritizes stability, economic development and strategic cooperation over ideological conflict. But frameworks do not change realities on their own. Outcomes do.<\/p>\n

IRAN WAR NEARS \u2018COMPLETION\u2019 AS TRUMP EYES DEADLINE \u2014 WHAT THE ENDGAME COULD LOOK LIKE<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n

Four decades of policy have exposed the limits of half-measures. Containment delays. Negotiation without leverage extends<\/a>. Pressure without conclusion stabilizes nothing. The system in Tehran does not need victory. It needs survival.<\/p>\n

Transition, however, carries risk. Collapse would not be orderly. Networks would fragment. Some would disappear. Others would adapt. Power vacuums are never empty; they are invitations to conflict.<\/p>\n

The role of international actors \u2014 particularly coordination between the CIA<\/a> and regional allies \u2014 would be critical in managing such a transition. At the same time, a credible national alternative \u2014 such as Iranian Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi \u2014 could provide continuity at a moment when fragmentation is most likely.<\/p>\n

IRAN REGIME FACES ‘BEGINNING OF THE END’ AS EXILED CROWN PRINCE SEES ‘GOLDEN OPPORTUNITY’<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n

A stable, sovereign Iran \u2014 integrated into the international system \u2014 would fundamentally alter the balance of power in the Middle East. It would reduce proxy conflicts<\/a>, strengthen economic ties and contribute to long-term regional stability. By contrast, the continuation of the current regime guarantees ongoing instability, conflict and strategic tension \u2014 a system that reproduces crisis as a method of survival.<\/p>\n

If Trump completes what he started \u2014 transitioning from mere pressure to decisive structural change \u2014 his legacy will be cemented alongside those who dismantled the defining threats of<\/a> their era. If not, the opportunity may pass once again. The regime of Shia mullahs will endure, and the cost of that endurance will not be abstract. It will be measured in instability, in conflict, and in the persistence of a regime that has already shaped the Middle East for nearly half a century.<\/p>\n

For many Iranians, Trump has become a symbol of resistance to a regime they have long sought to see end. For now, Iran stands at a crossroads. And so does history. But crossroads do not determine outcomes. Decisions do.<\/p>\n

IRAN REGIME ESCALATES REPRESSION TOWARD ‘NORTH KOREA-STYLE MODEL OF ISOLATION AND CONTROL’<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n

To hide the scale of its abuses, the Shia clerical regime imposed near-total internet blackouts and sweeping<\/a> censorship to suppress dissent. Trump repeatedly drew attention to the suffering inside Iran and to the scale of the repression. Meanwhile, millions inside the country remain cut off, silenced and isolated. When the internet flickers back, even briefly, it feels like a fragile signal from a society still struggling to be heard. The question is whether hope can still endure.<\/p>\n

CLICK HERE FOR MORE FOX NEWS OPINION<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n

Trump also understands that the Iranian people should not be left alone against figures such as Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje’i, the head of the judiciary<\/a>, and IRGC commander Ahmad Vahidi, whose machinery of repression and propaganda continues to operate against the population until the very end of the regime. That is precisely why Trump\u2019s name carries weight in the Iranian public imagination \u2014 whether one supports him or not, this reality cannot be ignored.<\/p>\n

The leadership in Tehran still appears convinced that Washington ultimately fears escalation more than the regime fears collapse. That assumption may become the most dangerous miscalculation in the modern Middle East.<\/p>\n

If the Islamic Republic continues testing American resolve, the next confrontation may no longer resemble calibrated deterrence. It may become the moment that determines whether Trump\u2019s Iran doctrine was merely pressure \u2014 or the beginning of historic change.<\/p>\n

History will not remember pressure alone. It will remember whether it led to change.<\/p>\n

CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM ERFAN FARD<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Source – https:\/\/www.foxnews.com\/opinion\/iran-gambling-trump-cave-hasnt-gone-well-far <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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