{"id":131229,"date":"2026-05-08T13:31:30","date_gmt":"2026-05-08T17:31:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cablemanpro.com\/wallstreetpr\/stop-betting-overs-like-a-casual-take-the-under-in-san-antonio-spurs-at-minnesota-timberwolves-game-3-131229"},"modified":"2026-05-08T13:31:30","modified_gmt":"2026-05-08T17:31:30","slug":"stop-betting-overs-like-a-casual-take-the-under-in-san-antonio-spurs-at-minnesota-timberwolves-game-3","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cablemanpro.com\/wallstreetpr\/stop-betting-overs-like-a-casual-take-the-under-in-san-antonio-spurs-at-minnesota-timberwolves-game-3-131229","title":{"rendered":"Stop betting Overs like a casual: Take the Under in San Antonio Spurs at Minnesota Timberwolves Game 3"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

I’m running it back and betting on boring when the Minnesota Timberwolves<\/a> (1-1) at the San Antonio Spurs<\/a> (1-1) for Game 3 of the 2026 Western Conference Semifinals Friday at the Target Center.<\/p>\n

Betting the Under 218 in Spurs-Timberwolves<\/a> Game 1 was a rocking chair <\/i>cover for me as the T-Wolves stole the series opener 104-102. In fact, the final score made Game 1 seem higher-scoring than it was because there were 65 points scored in the fourth quarter.<\/p>\n

WHY THE 76ERS ARE POISED TO COVER THE SPREAD IN A MUST-WIN GAME 3 AGAINST THE KNICKS AT HOME<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n

But, I’m utilizing the zig-zag theory<\/i>, an NBA postseason handicapping strategy where you fade the results of the previous game in a playoff series. Game 2 soared over its 216.5 total when San Antonio beat the brakes off Minnesota 133-95.<\/p>\n

VICTOR WEMBANYAMA SETS NBA POSTSEASON BLOCK RECORD IN THE SPURS’ LOSS TO THE TIMBERWOLVES<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n

Maybe the offenses hit their stride at the end of Game 1 and I’m stepping in it here. However, there is usually value in the Unders since people like betting Overs because points are exciting and no one wants to watch a boring game.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Officiating tends to zig-zag in the NBA playoffs<\/a>, not just teams, and there were a combined 64 free throws in Game 2. These teams averaged a combined 49.9 free throws per game during the regular season and San Antonio\u00a0led the NBA in defensive FT\/FGA rate.<\/p>\n

That said, if the refs “let them play” Friday, there should be fewer free-throw attempts.<\/p>\n

2026 NBA PLAYOFFS: DENVER NUGGETS AT MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES GAME 4 BEST BET<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n

Also, there could be a lot of long possessions. The Spurs were fifth in offensive turnover rate (TOV%) in the regular season and 26th in defensive TOV%. They led the NBA in defensive rebounding rate, so Minnesota won’t score many second-chance points.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, both teams play better defense than offense. The Timberwolves ranked eighth in defensive rating<\/a> during the regular season and the Spurs ranked third.<\/p>\n

‘ZIG-ZAG THEORY’: HOUSTON ROCKETS WILL COVER AND EVEN SERIES VS. LOS ANGELES LAKERS IN GAME 2<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n

Minnesota\u2019s defense improves at home, too. The T-Wolves are 30-14 to the Under (an NBA-high 68.2%) this season at home with a -6.6 margin vs. the total.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Plus, the pace slows in playoff games after a blowout because the losing team responds by locking in on defense. Since 2021, the total is 46-30-1 to the Under (60.5%) in the game after a 20-plus-point blowout. When the margin is 30+ points, the total is 19-8 to the Under (70.4%).<\/p>\n

CLICK HERE FOR MORE OUTKICK SPORTS COVERAGE<\/u><\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n

Going back to the zig-zag theory<\/i>, the T-Wolves have to slow down the pace in Game 2. They won Game 1 and the pace was 95.9. The Timberwolves got crushed in Game 2 by 38 points on the pace increased to 107.4.<\/p>\n

The bottom line is Minnesota cannot beat San Antonio in a fast-paced game. Instead, the T-Wolves need to grind the Spurs down and win a rock-fight<\/i>, which is what we’ll see in Game 3<\/p>\n

Prediction: Spurs 108, Timberwolves 102<\/strong><\/p>\n

_____________________________<\/i><\/p>\n

Follow me on X @Geoffery-Clark<\/u><\/a>, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast<\/u><\/a> for more betting content and random rants.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Source – https:\/\/www.foxnews.com\/outkick-sports\/stop-betting-overs-like-casual-take-san-antonio-spurs-minnesota-timberwolves-game-3 <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

I’m running it back and betting on boring when the Minnesota Timberwolves (1-1) at the San Antonio Spurs (1-1) for Game 3 of the 2026 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"rop_custom_images_group":[],"rop_custom_messages_group":[],"rop_publish_now":"initial","rop_publish_now_accounts":{"twitter_2902945987_2902945987":""},"rop_publish_now_history":[],"rop_publish_now_status":"pending","footnotes":""},"categories":[16563],"tags":[],"stock_ticker":[],"class_list":["post-131229","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-news","entry"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nStop betting Overs like a casual: Take the Under in San Antonio Spurs at Minnesota Timberwolves Game 3 - Wall Street PR<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/cablemanpro.com\/wallstreetpr\/stop-betting-overs-like-a-casual-take-the-under-in-san-antonio-spurs-at-minnesota-timberwolves-game-3-131229\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Stop betting Overs like a casual: Take the Under in San Antonio Spurs at Minnesota Timberwolves Game 3 - 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