{"id":127037,"date":"2026-04-08T11:00:42","date_gmt":"2026-04-08T15:00:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cablemanpro.com\/wallstreetpr\/what-comes-next-in-the-iran-war-what-this-ceasefire-will-and-wont-do-127037"},"modified":"2026-04-08T11:00:42","modified_gmt":"2026-04-08T15:00:42","slug":"what-comes-next-in-the-iran-war-what-this-ceasefire-will-and-wont-do","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cablemanpro.com\/wallstreetpr\/what-comes-next-in-the-iran-war-what-this-ceasefire-will-and-wont-do-127037","title":{"rendered":"What comes next in the Iran war? What this ceasefire will and won’t do"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

The Iran ceasefire<\/a> was less than three hours old when missiles began flying from Iran toward Israel and the Gulf states. That detail \u2014 documented in real time \u2014 tells you more about the durability of this agreement than any official statement. A pause is not peace. A handshake in Islamabad is not a settlement. And a region that has been at war for forty days does not stand down because two governments issued parallel social media posts.<\/p>\n

The two-week ceasefire brokered by Pakistan\u2019s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Army Chief General Asim Munir is genuinely welcome. It stepped both sides back from a precipice with real humanitarian and strategic consequences. But Vice President Vance himself called it a “fragile truce<\/a>.” That is the most honest thing anyone in this administration has said about it. Hold that phrase.<\/p>\n

What the Ceasefire Actually Says<\/strong><\/p>\n

Under the agreement, Iran has committed to allowing safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz during the two-week period, “with due consideration of technical limitations” \u2014 Iran\u2019s qualifier, not ours. The United States and Israel have suspended bombing operations. Trump declared Iran\u2019s 10-point proposal “a workable basis on which to negotiate,” adding that “almost all of the various points of past contention have been agreed to.” That claim requires scrutiny. Iran\u2019s demands include lifting all sanctions, withdrawing U.S. combat forces from regional bases, war reparations, Iranian control of Hormuz transit at $2 million per vessel, and \u2014 critically \u2014 the right to nuclear enrichment. Iran\u2019s Supreme National Security Council declared the ceasefire “an enduring defeat” for Washington. Trump called it a “total and complete victory<\/a>.” When both sides claim the same agreement as their triumph, what you have is a temporary suspension of hostilities while each side repositions.<\/p>\n

IRAN CONFLICT TESTS PAKISTAN AMID OWN BORDER CLASHES AS ISLAMABAD TOUTED AS VENUE FOR US-TEHRAN TALKS<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n

The Fractures Are Already Showing<\/strong><\/p>\n

Israel is not bound by this ceasefire in Lebanon<\/a>. Netanyahu\u2019s office stated plainly that the deal does not cover the fighting there, directly contradicting Pakistan\u2019s public claim that the ceasefire applied everywhere. Hezbollah has issued no statement. Iran-backed militias in Iraq declared a two-week operations suspension \u2014 but that declaration came from a group that follows its own timeline. Oil futures dropped 13 percent on the news. Markets are relieved. They should also be watchful. A single maritime incident, a proxy rocket, or an intelligence miscalculation could collapse this arrangement before talks in Islamabad even open.<\/p>\n

The Hidden Winners: Beijing and Moscow<\/strong><\/p>\n

While Washington and Tehran negotiate, two other capitals are quietly counting their gains. Russia and China have not been idle spectators in this conflict \u2014 they have been active participants, and the ceasefire does not change that calculation one degree.<\/p>\n

Russia\u2019s role<\/a> has been documented in intelligence assessments reviewed by multiple major news organizations. Russian satellites conducted at least 24 surveillance surveys of 46 military and infrastructure sites across 11 Middle Eastern countries in the final ten days of March alone \u2014 including U.S. bases at Prince Sultan in Saudi Arabia, Al Udeid in Qatar and Diego Garcia. Within days of those surveys, Iran struck many of those same facilities. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy was 100 percent confident Russia was sharing that targeting data with Tehran. Putin\u2019s stated goal, according to Zelenskyy: a “long war in the Middle East.”<\/p>\n

The financial incentive is equally clear. The Peterson Institute for International Economics calculates that Russia could pocket between $45 billion and $151 billion in additional budget revenues in 2026 from the oil price spike alone \u2014 revenues that flow directly into financing the war in Ukraine. The Trump administration\u2019s temporary easing of sanctions on Russian oil, described as a market-stabilization measure, has compounded that windfall. Every dollar Moscow earns from Iran\u2019s disruption of the Strait buys another day of war against Kyiv.<\/p>\n

China\u2019s role is subtler, but equally calculated. Reports emerged after the ceasefire that Beijing had been working through intermediaries \u2014 including Pakistan, Turkey and Egypt \u2014 to quietly encourage Iran toward negotiations. China welcomed the outcome publicly. That is the posture of a power that wanted the crisis to end on terms it helped shape, not the posture of a bystander. Intelligence reporting also indicates that China may have provided Iran with financial assistance, spare parts and access to its BeiDou navigation satellite system \u2014 which analysts say may explain the improved accuracy of Iranian missile targeting throughout the conflict.<\/p>\n

Trump has repeatedly identified China as America\u2019s most significant long-term security challenge. That assessment is correct. Which makes the strategic arithmetic<\/a> of the past forty days deeply troubling: every Patriot interceptor fired over Riyadh is one fewer available for Kyiv or Taiwan. Every week consumed by ceasefire negotiations in Islamabad is a week not spent shoring up the Indo-Pacific deterrence architecture Beijing is systematically probing. The Washington Institute for Near East Policy noted bluntly that Putin hopes “successive crises in Iran will continue distracting the United States from pressuring him about the Ukraine war.” Both Moscow and Beijing understand something Washington must not forget: the enemy of your enemy is your strategic opportunity.<\/p>\n

The Nuclear Question Is the Whole Ballgame<\/strong><\/p>\n

I have spent years arguing \u2014 in my 2024 book Preparing for World War III: A Global Conflict That Redefines Tomorrow \u2014 that Iran\u2019s nuclear ambitions are the engine driving this conflict. A ceasefire that leaves that question unresolved has postponed the most dangerous phase, not solved it. Trump said Iran\u2019s uranium would be “perfectly taken care of,” but declined to confirm whether the deal permits enrichment. Iranian state outlets reported it does. The English-language version omitted that clause. That is not a translation problem. It is a substantive gap of the kind that generates wars when it resurfaces. My former battalion commander Colin Powell\u2019s Pottery Barn rule applies to diplomacy as surely as it applies to war: “You break it, you own it.” If we accept terms that paper over the nuclear question to secure a headline-friendly announcement, we own every consequence that follows when enrichment resumes. The mullahs played that game in 2015. Nothing in this framework suggests a different outcome.<\/p>\n

The Bottom Line<\/strong><\/p>\n

Catastrophe avoided is not a small thing. But the underlying issues remain: Iran\u2019s nuclear program, its proxy network, its regional ambitions, and Russia and China calculating every move to their advantage behind the scenes. The next two weeks will reveal whether both sides negotiated seriously \u2014 or whether each used the pause to reposition for the next confrontation. A fragile truce in a volatile region, with two great powers working the margins, is not an endpoint. It is a moment of decision. Use it wisely.<\/p>\n

CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM ROBERT MAGINNIS<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Source – https:\/\/www.foxnews.com\/opinion\/what-comes-next-iran-war-what-ceasefire-will-wont-do <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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